[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (01-03 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (01 Jan) with a chance for high levels on days two and three (02-03 Jan) due to the increase in solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased from nominal levels to a peak of 14 nT around 01/0250 UTC. Bz briefly reached -12 nT around the same time. A decrease in total field strength to 6-8 nT was observed after 01/0500 UTC. Solar wind speeds steadily increased to a peak of 475 km/s at 01/0420 UTC and continued between 420-460 km/s through the rest of the period. Phi angle transitioned from the negative sector to the positive sector after 31/1745 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (01-02 Jan) due to continued CH HSS effects. A gradual decrease is expected on day three (03 Jan) as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on day one (01 Jan) as CH HSS influence continues. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day two (02 Jan) and quiet to unsettled on day three (03 Jan) as CH HSS effects weaken.

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