[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (30 Dec-01 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels briefly, reaching a peak flux on 1,092 pfu at 29/1820 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (30 Dec-01 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, continued to reflect nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was between 2-7 nt and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds were low, ranging from around 360-415 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be at nominal levels on day one (30 Dec). An enhancement from a positive polarity CH HSS is expected late on day two (31 Dec). Enhancements are expected to continue on day three (01 Jan).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (30 Dec). Coronal hole influence late on day two (31 Dec) is expected to transition quiet conditions into active. Isolated G1 (Minor) conditions are likely over day three (01 Jan) as CH HSS influence continues.

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