[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (19-21 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one through three due to elevated wind speeds from a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds gradually declined from near 650 km/s to 500 km/s. Total field (Bt) achieved a maximum of 9 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-5 nT. Phi was oriented in a positive solar sector throughout the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at elevated levels for the duration of the forecast period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one under persistent CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three due to waning influence from residual CH HSS effects.

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