[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. At approximately 15/1229 UTC, SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed a 13 degree long filament eruption along a channel centered near S25E37. A slow-moving CME was observed in C2 LASCO imagery, first visible at 15/1448 UTC. Analysis is ongoing for any Earth-directed component from this event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (16-18 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 276 pfu observed at 15/1925 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next two days (16-17 Dec). An increase to moderate to high levels is expected for day three (18 Dec) in response to elevated wind speeds from a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated background conditions. Solar wind speeds averaged about 355 km/s, total field did not exceed 6 nT and the Bz component did not drop below -3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive solar sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at background levels until late on day two (17 Dec) when elevated wind speeds and enhanced total field measurements will announce the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds are anticipated to exceed 600 km/s with this feature.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (16-17 Dec). Late on day two, unsettled to active conditions are expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day three (18 Dec) as CH HSS effects linger.

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