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[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on

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Subject: [Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 01 1230 UTC
From: nw7us@sunspotwatch.com
Reply-to: Practical radio-wave propagation and space weather <propagation@contesting.com>
Date: Sat, 1 Oct 2016 20:07:13 +0000
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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no sunspot regions were observed this period. A filament centered near N25E20 was observed erupting in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning at 01/0125 UTC. An associated CME was first seen in C2 coronagraph imagery at 01/0236 UTC and analysis is underway to determine if this event has an Earth-directed component. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight change for C-class flare activity, over the next three days (01-03 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak flux of 74,718 pfu observed at 30/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV flux is expected to continue at high to very high flux levels over the next three days (01-03 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the weakening influence of a positive polarity CH HSS this period. Total magnetic field strength values were steady near 5 nT and Bz varied between +/- 4 nT. Solar wind speed generally decreased from initial values near 650 km/s to end-of-period values near 530 km/s. The phi angle was steady in a positive solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a slow return to near-background levels over the next three days (01-03 Oct) as CH HSS influence subsides and a nominal solar wind regime returns.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels this period due to waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (01 Oct) and active levels on days two and three (02-03 Oct) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 Oct 01 20:07 UTC

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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