[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2597 (S14W34, Dac/beta-gamma) produced a C1 flare at 25/1914 UTC as well as several B-class flares during the period. The region exhibited spot and penumbra growth within its intermediate spots. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (26-28 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (26-27 Sep). Moderate to high flux levels are expected on day three (28 Sep) due to an enhanced solar wind environment from a geoeffective CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters suggested the transit of an SSBC early in the period. At about 25/1620 UTC, phi angle rotated from a steady negative to a steady positive orientation. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 6-11 nT. The Bz component was quite variable over the past 24 hours. Strong northward (+11 nT) and strong southward (-10 nT) orientations were observed. Wind speeds indicated a gradual increase through the period. The period began with speeds near 350 km/s with a gradual increase to about 415 km/s observed by 25/1700 UTC. Winds speeds remained fairly steady at this speed through periods end. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to become further enhanced as a positive polarity CH HSS influences the near-Earth space environment on day one (26 Sep). Day two (27 Sep) is likely to observe waning influence from the CH HSS before a further increase from the onset of a another, recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS enhances the solar wind through day three (28 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active to G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to several prolonged periods of southward Bz coupled with an SSBC from a negative to a positive orientation.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels on day one (26 Sep), with isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely, during the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue into day two (27 Sep) as the CH HSS wanes. Isolated periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on day three (28 Sep) from the onset of another recurrent, extension off the northern crown, positive polarity CH HSS.

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