[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 2592 (N12E08) and 2594 (N12W09) decayed to plage regions and were inactive. Region 2593 (N09W10, Cao/beta) remained largely inactive and showed no significant growth in areal coverage or magnetic complexity. Region 2595 (N11W63, Bxo/beta), was numbered today and has shown no substantial growth or activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (20-22 Sep) with a chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (20-21 Sep) with high levels possible on day three (22 Sep) due to delayed effects from a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters transitioned from near background conditions to the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds underwent a mild increase from around 350 km/s to over 650 km/s by the periods end. The total magnetic field strength rose to near 20nT at around 19/2000 UTC, but decreased to near 5 nT for the last few hours of the period. The Bz component has been variable with a few southward deflections to near -5 nT. Phi was predominantly in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (20-21 Sep) due to the influence of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed peak values in the 550-600 km/s range are anticipated. CH HSS influence is expected to wane over the course of day three (22 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storming levels. G1 storm levels were observed during the 00-03 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: Up to G1-Minor geomagnetic storm levels are forecast on day one (20 Sep), due to CH HSS influences. A decrease to active conditions is expected early on day two (21 Sep) as CH HSS influence continues. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (22 Sep) with a chance of isolated active periods likely as CH HSS effects gradually subside.

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