[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 16 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. The lone spot group on the visible disk, Region 2592 (N14E60, Bxo/beta) was stable and inactive through the period. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (16-18 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (16-18 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed fluctuated between 300-325 km/s. Total field values were near 6 nT. The Bz component was mostly northward. Phi angle was in a positive orientation until 15/1900 UTC when it switched to negative for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected become slightly enhanced on days one and two (16-17 Sep) as a pair of negative polarity CH HSSs move into a potentially geoeffective position. Conditions should begin to return to background levels as CH HSS influence tapers off by day three (18 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (16-17 Sep) due to a series of negative polarity coronal hole high speed streams, then fall to quiet levels on day three (18 Sep) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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