[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 02 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was very low. Region 2585 (N06E49, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced a few B-class flares during the period. Region 2581 (N13W73, Hsx/alpha) remains stable as it approaches the western limb. Region 2586 (N05W11, Bxo/beta), near center disk, remains a simple beta grouping. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares for the next three days (02-04 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely reach normal to moderate levels today through day two (02-03 Sep), with an increased chance for high levels by day three (04 Sep) in response to enhanced solar wind velocities from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from 460 km/s early in the period, peaked near 730 km/s around 0400 UTC, and leveled off near 620 km/s towards the end of the period. Total field ranged between 4 nT and 10 nT, while the Bz component remained mostly southward with max southward deflections near -8 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day two (02-04 Sep) as influence from a positive polarity CH HSS persists. Solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s are anticipated in association with the coronal hole effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on day one (02 Sep) as CH HSS influence persists. A gradual decrease in CH HSS effects should return geomagnetic field conditions back to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, on days two and three (03-04 Sep) as CH HSS effects continue.

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