[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. Regions 2579 (N10W41, Axx/alpha) and 2580 (S18E02, Hsx/alpha) continued to show evidence of decay. Region 2581 (N12E15, Cai/beta) exhibited appreciable growth of the lead spot, while the trailing spots showed some decay in terms of numbers and penumbra. A new region, Region 2582 (N08W32, Bxo/beta), was numbered this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (27-29 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,334 pfu observed at 26/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (27-29 Aug) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 470 km/s to end-of-period values near 420 km/s. Bt was steady near 5 nT, while the Bz component was generally between -4 nT and +4 nT. The phi angle was mostly negative (toward the Sun) throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at near-background levels until late on day two (27-28 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day two (28 Aug) through day three (29 Aug) due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds are expected to increase to around 600-650 km/s as the CH HSS moves into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled conditions late in the period due to waning CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through late on day two (27-28 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled conditions are expected late on day two (28 Aug) due to a solar sector boundary crossing followed by the initial onset of a CIR. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on day three (29 Aug) due to CIR and CH HSS influence.

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