[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with no flare activity observed. Region 2578 (N09W31) decayed to plage. New Regions 2579 (N12E23, Bxo/beta) and 2580 (S16E64, Hax/alpha) were numbered this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance for low activity over the next three days (22-24 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 889 pfu observed at 21/1530 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels, over the next three days (22-24 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (22-24 Aug).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind gradually increased through the period for near 335 km/s to a peak about 427 km/s at 22/0255 UTC due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Bt peaked at 14 nT at about 21/1430 UTC, but slowed decreased to average near 6 nT by periods end. The Bz component was variable between +12 nT to -9 nT through about 21/1800 UTC. Through the end of the period, Bz did not vary much beyond +/-5 nT. The phi angle was steady in a negative solar sector orientation through the period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions will remain enhanced through day one (22 Aug), decreasing to background levels by day two (23 Aug). Another negative polarity CH HSS will result in an enhanced solar wind by day three (24 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels for the first half of the period with an isolated active period observed 21/1500-1800 UTC. This activity was due to weak CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels were observed for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the remainder of day one (22 Aug) as CH HSS influence subsides. Day two (23 Aug) is expected to see mostly quiet conditions with unsettled periods likely late in the day as another negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Unsettled to active conditions are expected early on day three (24 Aug) with continued CH influence.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation