[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2574 (N05W11, Cao/beta) produced B-class flare activity and displayed signs of minor growth in its trailer. The remaining three numbered sunspot groups were stable and absent of significant flaring. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity on days one through three (14-16 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days of the forecast period (14-16 Aug), with a brief decrease possible on 15-16 Aug as a recurrent high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment, at the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected ambient conditions. Wind speed was steady near 450 km/s throughout the period. Total field strength was at or near 5 nT while the Bz component was positive for the duration of the period. Phi was generally positive, with periodic negative excursions suggesting brief heliospheric current sheet crossings.

Forecast: A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective over the next three days. Recurrence suggests onset late on 15 Aug to early on 16 Aug. The current western boundary of the coronal hole appears at or slightly behind the western boundary during the last rotation. Consequently, the arrival is not predicted to be any earlier than suggested by recurrence. Observations from STEREO-A revealed a solar wind speed approaching 700 km/s and Bz decreasing to -10 to -15 nT with onset, although STEREOs position differs from Earths position by about 13 degrees relative to the ecliptic. WSA-Enlil does not indicate the arrival of a high speed stream, but WSA model output using NSO data shows an increase in speed to approx 600 km/s late on 15 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for 14 Aug. 15 Aug should begin quiet and end with active levels, with a chance for a minor storm period, as the anticipated high speed solar wind stream arrives. 16 August will be characterized by disturbed conditions, beginning with G1 minor storm levels likely early and gradually subsiding to mostly active to unsettled levels.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation