[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1 flare at 24/1743 UTC from Region 2567, which rotated out of view early this period. There are no active regions with sunspots on the visible disk at the time of this writing and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: There is a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3 or greater Radio Blackout) flare on day one (25 Jul) as Region 2567 transits the west limb. There is a chance for C-class flares with a slight chance for M-class flares on day two (26 Jul) and only a slight chance for C-class flares on day three (27 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (25-27 Jul) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a weak transient arrival, possibly associated with flare activity late on 20 July to early on 21 July. Solar wind speed was around 380 km/s until 24/1450 UTC, when the arrival of a weak transient increased solar wind speeds to near 470 km/s. Total field increased from 5 nT to 13 nT before decreasing to near 6 nT. The Bz component deflected southward for 3 hours with to a maximum of -9 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative (towards) with brief variations into a positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced early on day one (25 Jul) due to the continued influence of a weak transient. By mid-to-late on day two (26 Jul), a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective and solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day three (27 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet to unsettled levels but the passage of a weak transient caused active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed during the 24/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period followed by multiple active periods.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the forecast period (25-27 Jul) due to continued weak CME effects persisting through early on 25 Jul followed by the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS by mid-to-late on 26 July.

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