[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity increased to high levels due to three R2 (Moderate) flares observed from Region 2567 (N05W74, Dao/beta). The first of these events was an M5 x-ray flare observed at 23/0211 UTC. At 23/0516 UTC, Region 2567 produced an impulsive M7/2b flare with an associated 310 sfu Tenflare. Shortly afterward, the region produced another impulsive event with an M5/3b observed at 23/0531 UTC. Associated with this event was another Tenflare with a 900 sfu maximum and Type II (729 km/s shock velocity) and Type IV radio emissions.

SDO/AIA 131,171 and 304 imagery observed material exiting the west limb at approximately 23/0540 UTC. Initial coronagraph imagery observed a CME lifting off the west limb at 23/0524 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is required to determine any possible Earth-directed component from this CME.

Region 2567 indicated some slight decay in the northern portion of the leader spots while Region 2565 (N03W84, Hkx/alpha) showed little change. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (23-24 Jul). M-class probabilities decrease to a slight chance on day three (25 Jul) as Regions 2565 and 2567 rotate around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at mostly background levels with a slight enhancement to near 1 pfu observed after 23/0600 UTC due to significant flare activity off the west limb. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (23-25 Jul). There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm for the next three days due to potential flare activity from Region 2567.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced with solar wind speeds averaging about 400 km/s through the period with a peak of 511 km/s observed at 22/2114 UTC. Total field generally ranged from 3 - 9 nT while the Bz component was mostly southward varying between +7 nT to -8 nT. Phi angle began the period in a negative sector, switched to a positive orientation at about 22/1730 UTC and remained positive through about 23/0130 UTC when it switched back to a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on days one and two (23-24 Jul) and returning to nominal conditions by day three (25 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods possible for the next three days (23-25 Jul).

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