[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low due to C-class activity associated with Region 2564 (N09E59, Dai/beta-gamma). The largest event of the period was a C8/2f flare observed at 10/0053 UTC. SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed material movement to the NE of Region 2564 with some absorption. Ground-based radio observatories recorded a Type II radio emission observed at 10/0059 UTC with an average shock velocity of 1435 km/s. At 10/0125 UTC, LASCO C2 imagery detected a slow-moving CME lifting off the NE limb.

Region 2564 exhibited trailer spot growth with some weak magnetic mixing evident within its intermediate spots. Region 2562 (S05E39, Cao/beta) was stable; Region 2563 (N19E38, Bxo/beta) indicated some trailer spot development, but was otherwise stable; Region 2561 S16W76, Axx/alpha) was in decay as it approached the SW limb.

Analysis of any Earth-directed component, from the CME described earlier, is ongoing pending additional imagery. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with an increasing chance for C-class flares, including a slight chance of M-class flares (R1 to R2 - Minor-Moderate), throughout the forecast period (10-12 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,008 pfu at 09/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on days one and three (10,12 Jul) in response to CH HSS activity. On day two (11 Jul), a decrease in flux to normal levels is likely as the Earth transitions between CH HSSs.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (10-12 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced from a polar connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds averaged about 625 km/s through a majority of the period, but indicated a gradual decrease in speeds approaching 550 km/s by periods end. Total field ranged from 3 nT to 7 nT while the Bz component was variable between +5 nT to -7 nT. The Phi angle oriented in a predominately positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated under a series of positive polarity CH HSSs. Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly decrease on day one through day two (10-11 Jul) as the polar connected CH HSS wanes. By mid to late on 11 Jul, an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to once again increase solar wind parameters. Solar wind speeds in the 550-650 km/s range is expected with the secondary enhancement.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under continued, but waning, CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (10 Jul) due to continued, but waning, CH HSS influence. By mid to late on day two (11 Jul), active to G1-Minor storm levels are expected as an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS rotates into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active levels are expected on day three (12 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist.

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