[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2553 (S07E25, Hhx/alpha) was the largest on the disk but remained primarily stable and quiet throughout the period. Region 2554 (N08E66, Dao/beta) lost penumbral area around its trailer spots. A new region of emerging flux was observed near S11E01 and will be assigned an active region number if it persists.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares all three days (14-16 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate levels on day one (14 Jun), with a chance for high levels. Electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days two and three (15-16 Jun) due to electron redistribution associated with CIR and CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a transitions from a waning HSS to ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 4-7 nT through most of the period. No prolonged periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from around 530 km/s to around 400 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to continue at near-background levels on day one (14 Jun). An enhancement from an anticipated CH HSS is expected late on day two (15 Jun) and into day three (16 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of unsettled observed during the 17/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet on day one (14 Jun). Active conditions are likely late on day two (15 Jun) and into day three (16 Jun) as a CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.

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