[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels with only background flares observed from Region 2552 (N15W69, Dao/beta-delta). Region 2552 indicated some slight intermediate spot consolidation and maintained a beta-delta magnetic signature. Region 2553 (S06E62, Hhx/alpha) showed area growth but was stable throughout the period. New Region 2554 (N08W27, Cro/beta) rapidly emerged over the past 12 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (11-13 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,590 pfu observed at 10/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (11-12 Jun) due to elevated geomagnetic field activity. High electron flux levels are expected to return by day three (13 Jun) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected an enhanced solar wind environment under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds steadily increased this period from beginning values around 340-350 km/s to ending values near 525 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) generally ranged between 5-9 nT with enhanced values of 10-14 nT recorded between about 10/1800-2330 UTC. The Bz component was predominately southward through the period reaching a maximum southward extent of -12 nT at 10/2152 UTC. The phi angle varied between negative and positive solar sectors until about 10/2230 UTC when it remained in a mostly weak positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced on days one and two (11-12 Jun) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind recurrence data and STEREO-A PLASTIC data suggests wind speeds around 550 km/s are likely to persist with this feature. Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a return to near-background levels on day three (13 Jun) as CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with unsettled to active levels from 10/1800 UTC to 11/0300 UTC UTC due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels late on day one (11 Jun) and active levels on day two (12 Jun) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (13 Jun) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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