[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and there were no active regions with sunspots on the visible disk. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (04-06 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,290 pfu observed at 03/1535 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels early on day one (04 Jun) but elevated geomagnetic field activity is expected to cause a decrease to normal levels late on day one through day three (04-06 Jun).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds varied between 280-330 km/s and Bz was variable with a maximum southward deflection of -3 nT. The phi angle meandered between positive and negative current sheet polarities throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by midday on day one (04 Jun) through late on day two (05 Jun) due the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind recurrence and STEREO-A PLASTIC data suggest wind speeds in the 600-700 km/s range are likely with this feature. Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a slow return to near-background levels on day three (06 Jun) as CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels late on day one (04 Jun) and early on day two (05 Jun) due to the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day three (06 Jun) as CH HSS influence begins to wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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