[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. The largest flare was a B8 from a region just beyond the NE limb at 26/2043 UTC. Region 2536 (N15E48, Dao/beta) was responsible for the majority of the other flare activity throughout the period. This region continued to exhibit slight growth, mainly in its trailer spots, while remaining mostly unchanged in its leader penumbra spot. Region 2535 (N06E37, Cro/beta) showed signs of weak development in its main leader spots, but was inactive during the period. The remaining regions were either stable or in minor decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (27-29 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (27-29 Apr) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind and IMF environment were indicative of the waning influence of the positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged between 395-495 km/s, total field strength ranged between 0 to 6 nT, while the Bz component varied with a maximum southward deviation near -7 nT. The phi angle was in a mostly positive sector, with occasional oscillations into the negative sector during the middle of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue near background levels on days one and two (27-28 Apr) under an ambient background solar wind regime. The IMF is likely to become enhanced and disturbed later on day three (29 Apr) due to the anticipated arrival of a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) towards a negative sector.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled on day one (27 Apr) with waning CH HSS influences. Day two is expected to see a return to quiet conditions with a nominal solar wind environment. The geomagnetic field is likely to remain quiet into day three (29 Apr), until later in the day, when the geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to active levels due an enhancement associated with the expected SSBC.

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