[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 13 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with Region 2529 (N09E08, Eho/beta) producing only B-class flares. The region underwent some decay as it decreased in total spots and area. Region 2530 (N15W31, Axx/alpha) underwent decay and was inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares all three days (13-15 Apr) due to the flare probability of Region 2529.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels days one and two (13-14 Apr) before increasing to normal to moderate levels on day three (15 Apr) due to influences from CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters suggested the arrival of a CIR and onset of CH HSS effects after 12/1830 UTC. The total field (Bt) was elevated early, reaching a maximum of 17 nT at 12/1952 UTC, then decreased to 7 nT toward the end of the period. The Bz component varied and reached a maximum southward deflection of -12 nT at 12/2000 UTC. Solar wind speed ranged from 350-450 km/s, before approaching 500 km/s after 12/2000 UTC and reaching a peak of near 700 km/s at 13/0615 UTC. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (13 Apr) due to influences of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Later on day one, effects from a possible glancing blow of the CME from 10 Apr are likely to further disturb the IMF. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to continue into day two (14 Apr) as CH HSS effects persist before waning by day three (15 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1-Minor storm during the 12/21-24 and 13/00-03 UTC synoptic periods.

Forecast: Periods of minor (G1) geomagnetic storming are expected on days one and two (13-14 Apr) due to CH HSS effects and a possible glancing blow from the 10 Apr CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with an isolated period of active levels are likely on day three (15 Apr) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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