[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low this period due to a long-duration C1 flare observed at 11/0202 UTC from Region 2529 (N09E34, Ehi/beta). Region 2529 exhibited some intermediate spot growth and maintained a simple bi-pole magnetic configuration. New Region 2530 (N16W05, Cao/beta) emerged on this disk this period and was quiet and stable.

An approximately 10 degree long filament, centered near N18E29, was observed erupting at about 10/1000 UTC. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NNE limb beginning at 10/1100 UTC. CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, suggests a possible weak, glancing blow at Earth mid to late 13 April. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (11-13 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels over the next two days (11-12 Apr) increasing to moderate to high levels by day three (13 Apr) as a result of an enhanced solar wind environment. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period at background levels but became slightly enhanced after 10/1300 UTC. Solar wind speeds slowly increased from around 350 km/s to around 425 km/s by 10/2100 UTC before gradually decreasing to end-of-period speeds approaching 350 km/s. Total field began the period at 10 nT through 10/1430 UTC and ranged between 2-8 nT through periods end. The Bz component remained mostly northward to +7 nT with a brief southward excursion to -6 nT about 10/2100 UTC. Phi angle orientation was in a predominately positive sector throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near-background levels on day one through late on day two (11-12 Apr) under a nominal solar wind regime. The onset of a negative polarity CH HSS late on 12 Apr through day three (13 Apr), coupled with a possible weak glancing blow from the 10 Apr CME mid to late on 13 Apr is expected to cause a solar wind enhancement.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels this period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one through late on day two (11-12 Apr) under a nominal solar wind environment. Active levels are expected late on day two increasing to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms by day three (13 Apr). This is due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible weak glancing blow from the 10 Apr CME mid to late on 13 Apr.

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