[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2526 (S03W70, Hsx/alpha) remained stable during the period. New Regions 2527 (N14W24, Bxo/beta) and 2528 (N07W02, Cao/beta) both exhibited areal and spot growth, particularly Region 2528.

An active prominence on the east limb near N25 erupted between 04/0126-0357 UTC as viewed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the NE limb, first visible at 04/0400 UTC. Due to the location of this CME, no Earth-directed component is expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (04-06 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,310 pfu observed at 04/1150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and three (04, 06 Apr) due to an enhanced solar wind environment. Electron flux values are expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day two (05 Apr) in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a return to a nominal solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds averaged about 420 km/s, Bt ranged between 5-8 nT, while the Bz component varied between +6 nT to -5 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a negative solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning early on day two (05 Apr) due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS with near-background levels likely on days one and three (04, 06 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field generally ranged from quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active interval late on 03 April due to the waning influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04, 06 Apr) due to waning CH HSS effects. The influence of a non-recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of active levels on day two (05 Apr).

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation