[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. Region 2526 (S05W41, Hsx/alpha) remained the only spotted region on the disk and was stable throughout the period.

At about 01/1245 UTC, SDO/AIA 171 and 304 imagery observed an approximately 7 degree filament eruption near the SW limb centered near W75S25. LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the SW limb, first visible at 01/1326 UTC. Analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests this CME is directed well south and west of the Earth-Sun line with no impact expected. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (02-04 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels with a peak flux of 585 pfu observed at 01/1810 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at low to moderate levels on day one (02 Apr) and moderate to high levels on days two and three (03-04 Apr) due to an enhanced solar wind environment.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (02-04 Apr).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from initial values near 365 km/s to values approaching 325 km/s by about 02/0800 UTC before indicating a slight increase to 350 km/s by periods end. Bt ranged between 3-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 3 nT. The phi angle was relatively steady in a positive solar sector orientation with only brief transitions to a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one (02 Apr) through midday to late on day two (03 Apr) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s were observed from this recurrent feature last rotation and similar conditions are expected this rotation. Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a return to near-background levels by day three (03-04 Apr) as CH HSS influence subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels late on day one (02 Apr) and G1 (Minor) storm levels on day two (03 Apr) due to the anticipated onset of a CIR preceding the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (04 Apr) as CH HSS influence subsides.

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