[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels with a long duration C1 flare at 23/0354 UTC from Region 2524 (N15W10, Eso/beta). An associated CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0500 UTC, was observed off the NE limb. Further analysis and WSA/Enlil modelling are being to conducted to determine if there is any Earth directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (23-25 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels, reaching a peak of 1237 pfu at 22/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on day one (23 Mar), but return to mostly moderate levels on days two and three (24-25 Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected a near background solar wind environment. Total field strength averaged approximately 7 nT, while Bz was variable, reaching a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. Wind speeds averaged near 420 km/s throughout the period. Phi angle was predominantly positive with isolated oscillations into the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on day one (23 Mar) as a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences the solar wind environment. By day two and continuing into day three (24-25 Mar), conditions should return to near background levels as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to effects from the positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active periods on day one (23 Mar). Days two and three (24-25 Mar) should see a return to mostly quiet conditions as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

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