[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2511 (N02W36, Bxo/beta) produced a C1/Sf flare at 08/1306 UTC. This region initially exhibited minor spot development early in the period and produced the C-flare, as well as a couple of B-flares, before showing signs of decay and eventually losing the majority of its intermediate and trailer spots. New Region 2518 (N05W21, Cro/beta) developed and was numbered during the past 12 hours. It continues to develop, increasing its magnetic complexity and overall size. An active region just beyond the east limb was responsible for the other C1 flare during the period, as well as a couple of B-class flares. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay.

Coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery around 08/0625 UTC. Initial indications point towards a possible CME, originating from near N02W15. Analysis of the SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery, and subsequent WSA Enlil model run, indicated a possible glancing blow at Earth just outside this forecast period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (09-11 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,263 pfu at 08/2125 UTC, but has since has dropped to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on all three days of the forecast period (09-11 Mar), while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the waning influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed steadily decreased from initial values near 460 km/s to end-of-period speeds near 376 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) averaged between 1 nT and 4 nT, while Bz was mostly negative with occasional oscillations into the positive sector. The phi angle was mostly negative throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue trending toward background conditions over the next three days (09-11 Mar) as CH HSS effects diminish.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on all three days of the forecast period (09-11 Mar) as the field returns to a nominal background state. There is a chance for isolated unsettled periods on day one (09 Mar) as the field recovers from residual CH HSS effects.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation