[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flares were observed this period. Region 2514 (N14W19, Dao/beta) exhibited minor growth while the remaining four spotted active regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (05-07 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on days one and two (05-06 Mar) with high levels likely on day three (07 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (05-07 Mar).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds meandered between 330-380 km/s and Bz briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT late in the period. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on day one through day three (05-07 Mar) due to the onset of a pair of negative polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). Solar wind speeds of around 425-475 km/s are expected during the passage of these features.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet levels through late on day one (05 Mar) when the onset of the first of a pair of CH HSSs is expected to cause periods of unsettled to active conditions. The onset of the second CH HSS on day two (06 Mar) is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to on day three (07 Mar) as CH HSS influence begins to subside.

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