[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Mar 03 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Mar 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2512 (N12E21, Dao/beta) became the most complex region on the disk, exhibiting growth in both leader and trailer spots as well as overall areal coverage. Region 2510 (N05E50, Cro/beta) was the only flare producer, despite remaining unchanged throughout the period. It was responsible for a B4 flare at 03/0203 UTC, the largest flare of the period. Region 2506 (S07W53, Cso/beta) continued to decay, losing nearly all of its intermediate and trailer spots.

Between about 02/2030-2200 UTC, an approximately 7 to 8 degree long, linear filament disappeared as observed in GONG/H-alpha imagery. Corresponding LASCO imagery indicated a very narrow CME with a north-northwest trajectory, believed to be associated with the filament. Due to its northerly trajectory, combined with how narrow it is, it is unlikely to have any impact at Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (03-05 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on days one and two (03-04 Mar). Normal levels are expected on day three (05 Mar) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, continued to reflect the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength steadily decreased from 8 nT to 5 nT during the period. Bz began the period varying between +/- 7 nT before eventually ending the period near 3 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 430 km/s nearly the entire period. The phi angle was predominantly positive throughout the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced on days one and two (03-04 Mar) as influence from the positive polarity CH HSS persists, but steadily wanes. By day three (05 Mar), enhancements in the solar wind speed, as well as the IMF Bt and Bz, are expected with the anticipated arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03-04 Mar) as residual CH HSS effects continue. By day three (05 Mar), an increase to unsettled to active levels is expected, due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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