[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest flare of the period was a B5/Sf at 21/0753 UTC from Region 2505 (N08W39, Dac/beta). Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 2505 while the rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

A halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery beginning at 20/1436 UTC with the majority of the ejecta off the western limb. This event was correlated with a backsided filament eruption first seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery at 20/1335 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an M-flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) all three days of the forecast period (21-23 Feb) due to the return of old Region 2490 and the continued emergence of Region 2505.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux of 15,809 pfu observed at 20/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels on day one (21 Feb). A decrease to moderate to high levels are expected on days two and three (22-23 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the duration of the forecast period (21-23 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters decreased to nominal levels over the period. Solar wind decreased from near 500 km/s to 340 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are expected for the next three days (21-23 Feb).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet conditions for the next three days (21-23 Feb).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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