[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 17 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 flare at 17/0501 UTC from Region 2497 (N13W82, Eac/beta-gamma-delta). Region 2497 was the source of several C-class flares throughout the period as it migrated closer to the western limb. Region 2501 (N04E42, Hsx/alpha) was stable and unremarkable. New Region 2502 (N08W06, Bxo/beta) was numbered today but has yet to produce significant flaring. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) during the next two days (17-18 Feb) due to the flare potential of Region 2497. On day three (19 Feb), solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares as Region 2497 departs around the western limb and a much lower risk of flare potential will exist.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels due to effects from the arrival of a polar-connected, negative polarity, CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (17-19 Feb). There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on days one and two (17-18 Feb) due to the magnetic complexity and proximity to the western limb of Region 2497.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment, as measured by the ACE satellite, was indicative of continued CH HSS influence. Wind speeds were generally between 550-650 km/s with a peak value of 669 km/s at 16/2022 UTC. The total field (Bt) was enhanced with values near 15 nT at the beginning of the period , then decreasing to period ending values near 7 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was variable with fluctuations between negative and positive values. The maximum southward deflection of Bz reached -14 nT at 16/1336 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist on days one and two (17-18 Feb) in response to CH HSS influence. Day three should see the solar wind environment begin to taper as it returns to background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels with an isolated period of major storm (G2-Moderate) conditions during the 16/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period due to effects from the negative polarity CH HSS. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels on day one (17 Feb), due to effects of the negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (18 Feb) should see mostly unsettled to active conditions as CH HSS influence continues. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated periods of active levels are expected for day three (19 Feb) as CH HSS effects start to wane.

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