[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/1b at 13/1524 UTC from Region 2497 (N12W43, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 2497 was also responsible for numerous C-class flares during the period. Slight growth and consolidation occurred in Region 2497, particularly in its larger intermediate spots. New Region 2500 (S18W36, Bxo/beta) was also responsible for a C1 flare at 14/0121 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (14-16 Feb) due primarily to the flare potential of Region 2497.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (14-16 Feb). There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over the next three days (14-16 Feb) due to the complexity and position of Region 2497.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speeds between 362 km/s and 456 km/s. Total field decreased from 10 nT early in the period to near 6 nT while the Bz component was mostly north between +9 nT and -5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected reflect diminishing influence of a subsiding CH HSS until the arrival of an anticipated 11 Feb CME late on day one (14 Feb). Enhancements in Bt and solar wind speeds are expected to persist through day two (15 Feb) and wane as day three (16 Feb) progresses.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels until late on day (14 Feb) when minor storm levels (G1-Minor) are likely to accompany the onset of the 11 Feb CME. Minor storm levels (G1-Minor) are likely to persist into day two (15 Feb) as the CME effects persist. CME effects are expected to subside to quiet to active levels as day three (16 Feb) progresses.

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