[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2496 (N08E25, Bxo/beta) and 2492 (N14W13, Cro/beta) were responsible for low level C-flares. The largest flare of the period was a C2/Sf at 07/1202 UTC from Region 2496. Slight growth was observed in Region 2497 (N13E42, Dai/beta) while separation occurred in the trailing spots of Region 2494 (S12W37, Dki/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) over the next three days (08-10 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (08-10 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a possible weak co-rotating interactive region (CIR) followed by the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. From 07/1418-08/0256 UTC, the Bz component was negative between -4 nT and -7 nT. Around 07/2215 UTC, a density increase was observed followed by an increase in total field to a maximum of 10 nT at 08/0600 UTC. At 08/0500 UTC, an increase in solar wind speed from 380 km/s to near 450 km/s occurred with a corresponding increase in temperature as the solar wind began to transition into HSS. Phi angle changed to a mostly positive sector (away) at 07/1606 UTC and then back to a mostly negative (towards) sector around 08/0200 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist under a negative polarity CH HSS through early to midday on day two (08-09 Feb). An additional enhancement is likely on day two as a glancing blow from a 05 Feb CME is anticipated to become geoeffective. Effects from the CME are expected to subside through day three (10 Feb).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to (G1) minor storm levels. Minor storm levels were observed druing the 08/0000-0300 UTC period, followed by active periods from 08/0300-0900 UTC due to CIR/CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected for the rest of day one (08 Feb) under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (09 Feb) is likely to see active conditions as a glancing blow from a 05 Feb CME moves past Earth. Day three (10 Feb) is expected to see a return of quiet to unsettled conditions as effects from the passing CME subside.

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