[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 02 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class activity. Newly numbered Region 2492 (N15E73, Axx/alpha) rotated onto the eastern portion of the disk during the period and produced a few low level B-class flares. Region 2489 (N10W49, Hhx/alpha) was inactive and continued to decay as the trailer spots dissipated completely. The other two numbered regions were either stable or in decay and inactive.

Other activity included an eruptive prominence off the west limb visible in SDO/AIA-304 imagery near 02/0100-0200 UTC. There is an associated CME first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 02/0224 UTC, but appears narrow and well off the Sun-Earth line.

An approximately 7 degree long, filament centered at about N05E25 disappeared between 01/1200-1400 UTC as observed in GONG/H-alpha imagery. Analysis of SDO/AIA-193 imagery showed coronal dimming associated with the filament activity. A CME was also observed off the eastern limb in coronagraph imagery and possibly associated with the event. Further forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling will be conducted to determine if an Earth-directed component exists.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (02-04 Feb), with the active region just beyond the NE limb being a primary contributor.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (02-03 Feb), before increasing to moderate to high levels by day three (04 Feb) due to effects from a CH HSS.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters were indicative of ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds were at background levels with speeds generally less than 300 km/s. Total field (Bt) strength was steady near 5-7 nT for most of the period. The Bz component was variable over the latter half of the period with a maximum deflection of -6 nT. The phi angle was in a positive orientation until near 02/0100 UTC, when it switched into a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through the majority of day one (02 Feb), before becoming slightly enhanced late on day one due to an approaching co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. IMF strength and solar wind speeds are expected to become enhanced on day two (03 Feb) due to CIR and CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated, but begin a slow decline on day three (04 Feb) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (02 Feb). Isolated active periods are expected on day two (03 Feb), with a chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor geomagnetic storming) due to effects from a CIR and subsequent CH HSS. Day three (04 Feb) is expected to experience quiet to unsettled periods, with a chance for an isolated active period as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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