[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest flare of the period was a B9 x-ray event observed at 30/2125 UTC from departing Region 2488 (N03W88, Hax/alpha). Region 2489 (N10W23, Cho/beta) continued its decay phase, particularly in its trailer spots. Region 2490 (S20W10, Bxo/beta) redeveloped as a simple bi-polar group. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph data. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (31 Jan-02 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels over the next three days (31 Jan-02 Feb) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speed ranged between 250-270 km/s through about 30/1800 UTC when a slight increase to 280-300 km/s occurred. These speeds persisted through periods end. Total field strength (Bt) values varied between 3-5 nT through about 30/2200 UTC when an overall increase to 6-9 nT was observed through the end-of-the period. The Bz component varied between +1 nT to -3 nT through about 31/0345 UTC. From then through periods end, Bz was steady south reaching a maximum southward deviation -7 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation through about 31/0700 UTC when some brief rotation to a negative (towards) orientation occurred through the end-of-the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels until late on day three (31 Jan-02 Feb) when a minor solar wind enhancement due to a solar sector boundary crossing followed by the initial onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is likely.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an interval of unsettled conditions observed between 31/0600-0900 UTC due to a period of steady southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels until late on day three (31 Jan-02 Feb) when unsettled levels are expected due to a solar sector boundary crossing followed by the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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