[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 11 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2430 (S17E26, Hrx/alpha) was stable. New Region 2431 (S17E68, Hax/alpha) rotated onto the visible disk and was numbered during the period. Neither regions produced flare activity. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on day one (11 Oct) with an increase to a chance for C-flares on days two and three (12-13 Oct) due to the return of old Region 2423 (S09, L=152).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the period, reaching a peak flux of 46,271 pfu at 10/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at high levels with very high levels likely for the forecast period (11-13 Oct) due to coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. A decrease to moderate levels is possible late on 12 Oct through early on 13 Oct as the Earth transitions to the northern positive polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to decline through the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from a high of 660 km/s to near 450 km/s by the end of the period. Total field varied between 5 nT and 2 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive (away) with short variations to a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decrease on day one (11 Oct) as CH HSS effects diminish. Another enhancement in total field intensity and solar wind speed is likely by mid to late on day two and continuing through day three (12-13 Oct) due to a transition into a northern polar positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to waning CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Oct) as CH HSS effects continue to diminish. By mid to late on day two (12 Sep), activity is expected to reach minor (G1) storm levels as the Earth transitions into a northern polar positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active levels are expected on day three (13 Sep) as coronal hole activity persists.

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