[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2429 (S20E39, Bxo/beta) was the only numbered region on the visible disk, but continued to decay throughout the period. Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery, erupting from just beyond the west limb. While there were several in quick succession, none appeared to have an Earth-directed component. No additional (CMEs) were detected in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares for the forecast period (08-10 Oct).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during the period, reaching a peak flux of 2816 pfu at 08/1155 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at moderate to high levels, with a chance for very high levels, for the forecast period (08-10 Oct) following the redistribution of particles due to the passage of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the influence of a strong CIR at the beginning of the period, followed by the transition to the positive polarity CH HSS. To start the period, total magnetic field (Bt) remained enhanced and saw a peak field strength of 22 nT at 07/1425 UTC. Bz had several periods of a prolonged southward component with a maximum negative deflection of -18 nT at 07/1339 UTC. The Phi angle remained in a positive (away) orientation throughout most of the period. CIR effects gave way to CH HSS influence near 08/1940 UTC. Total field strength exhibited a rapid decline to around 6 - 7 nT, density experienced a significant decrease as well, and wind speeds increased from just over 400 km/s to sustain speeds near 750 km/s, eventually seeing a peak of 844 km/s at 07/2033 UTC. These signatures marked the transition of the CIR into a strong HSS.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the majority of day one (08 Oct) as influence from the positive polarity, equatorial CH HSS continues. CH HSS effects should begin to wane near the end of day two (09 Oct). Early on day two, an enhancement in solar wind parameters is possible due to prolonged southward Bz combined with substorming effects. Day three (10 Oct) is likely to see a decrease in activity as CH HSS effects continue to wane, however, an isolated period of substorming could cause another short-lived disturbance in the solar wind environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field has ranged from minor (G1 - Minor) storm levels to severe (G3 - Strong) storm levels due to the persistent effects of the forecast CIR and CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major (G2 - Moderate) storm levels on day one (08 Oct) as CH HSS effects continue. Day two (09 Oct), should see active to minor storm (G1 - Minor) levels early in the period before CH HSS begin to wane. The later part of 09 Oct and day three (10 Oct) should see a return to quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active levels due to substorming.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation