[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 03 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2422 (S20W92, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M1 flares (R1-Minor) at 02/1226 UTC and 02/1718 UTC as well as several C-class events. The region continued to rotate around the west limb making spot analysis difficult. Region 2427 (N18W31, Dai/beta) showed slight growth and consolidation in its leader spots and produced some low level C-class activity late in the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the past 24 hours.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain low with M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity likely on days one and two (03-04 Oct). There is a chance for X-class (R3, Strong or greater) flares on day one, but decreasing to a slight chance on day two due to the flare potential and location of Region 2422. There is a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity and slight chance for X-class (R3, Strong or greater) flares on day three (5 Oct) as Region 2422 transits the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels during the period while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (03-04 Oct). Moderate to high levels are possible by day three (05 Oct) after passage of the 30 Sep CME and subsequent enhanced solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, with a chance of S1-Minor or higher flux levels due to the geoeffective position of Region 2422.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced throughout the period. Solar wind velocity averaged about 375 km/s with isolated maximum speed of 460 km/s observed at 03/0500 UTC. Total field strength (Bt) ranged between 6-12 nT. The Bz component varied between +/- 7 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominantly positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced on day one (03 Oct) as an equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to influence the near-Earth space environment. Late on day one, further enhancements are expected to disturb the wind environment with the potential arrival of the 30 Sep CME. Enhancements are expected to continue through day two into day three (04-05 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels, with periods of minor storming (G1-Minor) likely late on day one (03 Oct), due to the possible arrival of the 30 Sep CME. Conditions are likely to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (04 Oct) due to residual CME effects. By day three (05 Oct), unsettled to active levels are expected as CME effects wane.

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