[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 30 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2357 (N09E39, Bxo/beta) underwent minor changes in spot layout, but was generally stable and inactive. Region 2356 (S16E40), Cso/beta) gained a bipolar spot and despite its simple dipole magnetic field, the neutral line had some brief increased magnetic shear through the spot group as noted in SDO/HMI magnetograms, that likely aided in the regions production of a pair of weak B-class flares.

An active prominence region (APR) was observed along the NE limb in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The APR displayed mostly lateral material movement and transfer, but no eruption was observed and the APR was quietly reabsorbed.

A 7 degree long filament faded away from the vicinity of Region 2357. The disappearing solar filament (DSF) was centered at approximately N09E60 and appeared to fade away with no eruptive signatures noted in SDO/AIA, GONG/H-alpha or SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with an increasing chance for C-class activity over the next three days (30 May-01 Jun) due to the return of old region 2339 (N13, L=129) on or about 31 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels for the forecast period (30 May-01 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced above background levels during the period. Solar wind speed was variable and ranged from approximately 360 km/s to 425 km/s with a brief increase to near 450 km/s between 29/2100 to 29/2200 UTC. Total magnetic field strength decreased from about 8 nT at the beginning of the period down to about 4 nT around 29/1600 UTC and became fairly steady between 5 nT to 6 nT afterwards. The Bz component fluctuated between positive and negative deviations with a maximum southward deflection of about -6 nT. The phi angle was primarily in a positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at or near nominal levels for the forecast period (30 May-01 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the forecast period (30 May-01 Jun).

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