[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Two new regions emerged during the period, Region 2352 (N05E16, Dro/beta) and Region 2353 (N08E02, Cao/beta). All other regions were either stable or in decay.

A nearly 10 degree long, linear filament located at approximately N16E02 became active and slowly dissipated between 22/0300-0600 UTC. Analysis of SDO/AIA imagery indicated the filament was likely reabsorbed.

At about 21/2204 UTC an eruptive event was noted from behind the NE limb in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery revealed a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first seen at 21/2224 UTC associated with this activity. Analysis of all available imagery did not reveal any front side signatures related to this event and it is likely this was a backside event and not Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity over the next three days (22-24 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at ambient background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (22-24 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) threshold for the forecast period (22-24 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite indicated a return to near background conditions as the positive polarity CH HSS rotated away from a geo-effective connection. Solar wind speed was generally steady during the period as it ranged from about 360-470 km/s. Total magnetic field strength remained undisturbed between 4-6 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between positive and negative, with maximum deflections to -3 nT. The phi angle remained in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind velocity is expected to be at background speeds for days one through three (22-24 May) as the CH HSS rotated away from a geo-effective position allowing a return to ambient conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through the forecast period (22-24 May) as CH HSS effects have ceased allowing for the return to an ambient conditions.

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