[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2305 (S10W86, Cho/beta) remained the largest on the disk but was unproductive. There was one C-class flare (C1.3, 02/0534 UTC) from an unnumbered region on the eastern limb. An associated CME was visible on LASCO imagery starting at 02/0548 UTC but was well off of the Sun-Earth line. New region 2317 (N10W38, Dro/beta) has shown growth in spots and area. No Earth directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: An increased chance for M-class activity (R1 Minor) is forecast for the next three days as old Regions 2302 (N12, L=189) and 2297 (S17, L=196) are anticipated to return. However, there is not much activity on the east limb; the probabilities may be reduced if the regions are less productive than last rotation.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (02-04 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at ACE was nominal. Wind speed ranged from about 375 to 430 km/s for most of the period and increased to near 480 km/s late in the period (02/0730 UTC). Phi was predominantly positive with the exception of a brief switch to negative near 02/0730 UTC. Bt was at or below 13 nT and Bz was mostly positive, but did dip to -8 nT briefly.

Forecast: A transition to a trans-equatorial, positive polarity, coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected on day one (02 Apr), with conditions persisting through day three (04 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in benign solar wind conditions.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are anticipated beginning on 02 Apr as a trans-equatorial, positive polarity, coronal hole high speed wind stream becomes geoeffective. By 04 Apr, quiet to unsettled levels are expected.

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