[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's SpaceWeather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with Region 2303 (N18W85, Dao/beta) producing the majority of the low level C-class activity. The largest flare of the period was a C3/Sf at 29/0656 UTC from Region 2303. Region 2303 continued to be in a growth phase as it approached the NW limb. Region 2305 (S10W27, Dhi/beta) continued to exhibit consolidation and magnetic simplification. Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 2315 (S20W22, Dro/beta). New Region 2316 (S21E50, Cro/beta) was numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the next three days (29-31 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on days two through three (30-31 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Weak geomagnetic disturbances continued during the period, however onset of the anticipated polar extension coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) has not yet been observed. Solar wind speeds continued to decrease from approximately 420 km/s to 360 km/s. Total field increased to 15 nT by mid-period but decreased to near 10 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component deflected southward between 28/1923 UTC and 29/1005 UTC reaching a maximum of -9 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative, but on the fringe of the neutral line, for the majority of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced by late on day one and continue through the forecast period (29-31 Mar) as a southern polar extension CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Solar wind speeds in the 600-700 km/s range are possible based on recurrent data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolated active period was observed during the 29/0000-0300 UTC time frame due to a prolonged period of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through late in the UTC day on day one (29 Mar). An increase to active to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) is likely by the end of the day as a southern polar CH HSS extension becomes geoeffective. Quiet to active levels are expected through days two and three (30-31 Mar) as CH HSS activity persists.

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