[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's SpaceWeather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple low level C-class flaring was observed from both Regions 2305 (S09W16, Eki/beta-gamma) and 2309 (N14W85, Dao/beta). The largest flare of the period was a C2 at 28/0526 UTC from Region 2305. Region 2309 continued to exhibit growth as it approached the NW limb. Convergence was observed in the smaller intermediate spots of Region 2305. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (28-30 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels once again with a maximum flux of 4,690 pfu at 27/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to remain at moderate to high levels for days one through three (28-30 Mar) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels until just after 28/0000 UTC when a slight increase in density, solar wind speed, and total field was observed along with a brief change in phi to a positive (away) sector. Solar winds increased from approximately 370 km/s to 420 km/s with a total field increase from 6 nT to 10 nT. The Bz component deflected southward to a maximum of -8 nT. This was possibly the beginning of a co-rotational interaction region in advance of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream.

Forecast: A negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), is expected to influence the solar wind environment beginning late on day one and persisting through the forecast period (28-30 Mar). Solar wind speeds reaching 700 km/s are possible.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through late on day one (28 Mar) when a southern extension of a negative polarity polar coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective. Active to minor storming (G1-Minor) is expected by late on day one and continuing through day two (29 Mar). Quiet to active levels are expected on day three (30 Mar).

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