[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's SpaceWeather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. There were several weak C-class flares observed, the largest a C1.4 x-ray event observed at 26/1921 UTC from Region 2305 (S08W02, Eki/beta-gamma). The region exhibited growth within its trailer spots. Region 2309 (N14W71, Cao/beta) grew from a spotless plage region to having four spots associated with it. The remaining regions on the disk were stable or slightly decaying. No Earth directed CMEs were detected with available imagery and observation data.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (27-29 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels once again with a maximum flux of 3,959 pfu at 26/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to remain at moderate to high levels for days one through three (27-29 Mar) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected background conditions with wind speeds ranging from 400 km/s to 460 km/s. Bt ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component of the IMF varied between +3/-5 nT. Phi began the period in a positive (away) orientation and remained so through about 26/1330 UTC when a solar sector boundary change (SSBC) to a negative (towards) occurred. Phi angle remained predominantly negative through the end of the period.

Forecast: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to influence ACE solar wind signatures beginning late on day one (27 Mar). On days two and three (28-29 Mar), the CH HSS wind structure is expected to become geoeffective with wind speeds approaching 700 km/s expected.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels on day one (27 Mar). A CIR is expected to impact the field late on 27 Mar. This CIR is in advance of a CH HSS associated with a negative polarity extension off the southern crown. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on days two and three (28-29 Mar) as effects from the CH HSS impact Earths magnetic field.

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