[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's SpaceWeather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Only low level C-class/Sf flares were observed, all of which originated from an unnumbered region on the southeast limb. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 2310 (N07EE48, Cao/beta), 2311 (N08W53, Bxo/beta), and 2312 (N09E63, Cao/beta). The largest region on the disk, 2305 (S07E40, Ekc/beta-gamma) grew as the leader and follower spots drifted apart and intermediate spots emerged. Region 2312 also grew. Emerging flux was also noted northeast of Region 2303 (N18W24, Cao/beta).

An 8-degree filament centered near S26E43 lifted off around between 23/1300-2300 UTC in GONG H-alpha imagery. Darkening was visible in SDO/AIA 193 imagery around that time. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery showed a narrow, faint CME emerging from the southeast limb around 23/1900 UTC. Analysis suggested it was moving at 360 km/s and directed well south of the ecliptic.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (24-26 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels, reaching 7573 pfu at 23/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at high levels through day two (25 Mar) then decrease to moderate levels by day three (26 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity high speed solar wind stream. Wind speed began in the low to mid 600 km/s range, and decreased slightly through the period to end near 550 km/s. Bt was at or below 8 nT while Bz remained at or above -5 nT. Phi was positive.

Forecast: The high speed wind stream is expected to dominate the solar wind environment at ACE for the next three days (24-26 Mar), gradually decreasing through the period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to the continued influence of the high speed solar wind stream described above, with activity decreasing through the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels, with a continued but diminishing threat of an isolated minor storm period through day one (24 Mar). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two through three (25-26 Mar) as the high speed stream wanes.

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