[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's SpaceWeather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to multiple low level C-class flares from Regions just rotating onto the NE and SE limbs. The largest flare of the period was a C3 at 23/0911 UTC from a region on the limb near S26. Slight growth was observed in Regions 2305 (S08E50, Ekc/beta-gamma), 2308 (N17W53, Cao/beta), and 2309 (N15W18, Cro/beta).

Other activity included a 23 degree long filament, centered along a channel near N16W30, which was observed erupting between 22/1505-1815 UTC. SDO/AIA 193 and GONG imagery observed material movement across the disk to the WNW. A faint coronal mass ejection was observed off the NW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at approximately 22/1924 UTC. Analysis of the event is in progress.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (23-25 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels, with a max flux of 3,390 pfu at 22/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at high levels through day two (23-24 Mar) with a return to moderate levels by day three (25 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were under the continued influence of a possible co-rotating interaction region through mid-period, followed by a solar sector boundary crossing around 22/2342 UTC into a positive sector. Phi angle remained in a mostly positive sector thereafter indicating the likely transition into a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total field decreased from 10 nT to near 5 nT with the Bz component between +/- 8 nT. Solar wind speed continued to be elevated between 475 km/s and 713 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS for the next three days (23-25 Mar). Solar wind speed is expected to slowly decrease through day three as coronal hole activity subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels. An isolated minor storm period was observed during the 23/0300-0600 UTC period due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions for the rest of the UTC day on day one (23 Mar). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two through three (24-25 Mar) as CH HSS effects slowly diminish.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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