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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Mar 23 0401 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 March 2015
Solar activity was at moderate levels to begin the week. Region 2297
(S17, L=196 class/area Dkc/420 on 13 Mar ) produced a pair of M1/2n
flares at 16/1058 UTC and 17/2334 UTC. Solar activity was at very
low to low levels for the rest of the week. Region 2302 (N12, L=189
class/area Cai/080 on 19 Mar) produced a C9/Sf at 18/0751 UTC as
well as several low-level C-class events. Region 2297 also continued
to produce C-class activity through the remainder of the period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was
enhanced following a long duration C9/1f flare observed at 15/0213
UTC. The alert threshold was not reached however, as the peak flux
observed was 8.5 pfu at 16/0755 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit began
the period at normal levels but reached high levels from 18-22 Mar
with a peak flux of 22,300 pfu on 20 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity began at quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet
to severe storm levels were observed on 17 Mar followed by minor to
major storm levels on 18 Mar due to effects from the 15 Mar CME.
Unsettled to minor storm levels were observed on 19-20 Mar due to
waning CME effects and the onset of the southern polar coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet to active conditions prevailed on
21 Mar. An isolated major storm period was observed between
0600-0900 UTC on 22 Mar followed by active conditions but settled to
quiet levels by 1800 UTC. This activity initially looked to be
caused by a co-rotating interactive region ahead of a positive
polarity high speed stream but it is difficult to ascertain the true
origin as the phi angle settled back to negative following the
event. It is possible that a transient caused the increase in
activity however, a source could not be easily identified.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 March - 18 April 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels to begin the period.
Moderate activity is expected from 01-15 Apr with the anticipated
return of old Region 2297 followed by low levels for the remainder
of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the
period with a chance for high levels following southern polar
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects on 30 Mar-01 Apr,
04-06 Apr, and 14-18 Apr.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels
on 23 Mar followed by unsettled to active levels on 24-25 Mar due to
positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on 26 Mar. Conditions are expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels from 27-31 Mar with minor storms likely on 28-29
Mar due to recurrent southern polar CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected to prevail from 01-11 Apr with unsettled
conditions possible on 03-04 Apr due to positive polarity CH HSS
effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 12-18 Apr
with minor storm conditions likely on 13-15 Apr due to a second
round of southern polar CH HSS effects.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Mar 23 16:10 UTC]()
Live data and images: SunSpotWatch.com
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