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How much credibility should we grant to the panel of solar researchers and
scientists that again releases a speculative prediction of the new Solar
Cycle (the 24th since accurate solar cycle records have been kept)? Panel
chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
states, "If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak
sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle
16 peaked at 78."
NASA's lead representative on the panel, Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space
Flight Center, adds, "It turns out that none of our models were totally
correct... The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
What I find entertaining is the self-importance prevalent in the solar
science community, by both professional and some amateur participants.
Pesnell states the obvious, "In our professional careers, we've never seen
anything quite like it."
Yeah, how many solar cycles can one experience during their professional
life? The average cycle lasts between 11 and 12 years in length. But the
Sun is millions of years old. In my view, it is pretty arrogant to
postulate that mankind has any real understanding and handle on what the
Sun might do next. Pesnell, again: "Go ahead and mark your calendar for
May 2013, but use a pencil."
If none of the models are totally correct, how are they making this
current prediction with such dismal expectations? I'm not holding my
breath in favor of supporting any of the predictions, at this point.
No one can postulate with any credibility just how intense the new cycle
will be, because there's no direct correlation between this solar minimum
and any regular pattern of past minimums. In 2008 and 2009, the sun was
more quiet than any period during the 'Space Age' (again, a very short
time of reference in relation to the millions of years of solar history).
During the last two years, we've seen low sunspot counts, weak solar wind,
low solar irradiance, and a period without a significant solar flare.
What does all of this mean in the real world of amateur communications?
With the slow yet sure increase in solar activity during recent months as
seen with the emergence of more frequent small sunspots (many of which are
new cycle spots) and 'proto-sunspots', there is hope that the sun is
waking, at least. Other evidence that the sun is experiencing an increase
in solar cycle activity is the 'zonal flows' (enormous currents of plasma
on the sun’s surface) that are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward
the sun’s equator. Tiny but significant increases in solar radio emissions
are being observed. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar
Cycle 24.
Even this little of an increase in solar activity has brought some
welcomed increase in excitement on the amateur radio bands. With
continued very low geomagnetic activity, any slight increase in solar
activity that strengthens the ionosphere translates to noticable
enhancements to radiowave propagation over many radio paths on the middle
to low HF (high-frequency) bands.
The Panel expects another year of very quiet conditions. They expect the
cycle to peak in 2013, which means a rapid rise in activity between 2010
and 2013. Whatever the final level of activity, one thing will likely
happen: a rapid and chaotic rise in geomagetic activity, at times at major
storm levels, will occur. Enjoy the unique propagation opportunities
currently presenting themselves during this quiet phase, because the game
will change in the next few years, regardless of who's predictions hold
true.
Prepare now for whatever the sun will do, by honing your radio skills,
increasing the efficiency of your antenna system, and participate in the
on-the-air opportunities to be a part of the solar cycle story. As the
story unfolds, be an active player and record as best you can your
activity, what the sun is doing. I keep a log of all the solar data, on a
daily basis, and I record my contacts made, antenna and power used, modes,
and other observations. This information might reveal new and interesting
facts as we journey forward in this new solar cycle.
===========================================================
73 de NW7US, Tomas David Hood - Singer/Songwriter/Guitarist
QTH: Bitterroot Valley of Montana -- DN36an / CW, DIGI, HF
Main Page: http://hfradio.org/ http://tomas-david-hood.com/
AM Operating Mode: http://amradio.org/
CW / Morse Code Operation: http://cw.hfradio.org/
Propagation and Space Weather: http://prop.hfradio.org/
Digital Operation Resources: http://digital.hfradio.org/
===========================================================
Linux User #32405 - Since 1996
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