> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
>
> 20 APRIL, 2005
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> (Based in-part on SEC Data.)
> (The final report will be released tommorrow.)
>
>
> PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 20 APRIL, 2005
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
> DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
> Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 80, 80, 80.
> Average 90-day Solar Flux: 91.
> Current Middle Latitude A-Index: 20
> Current Boulder K-Indices: 2544 422*
> Current Planetary K-Indices: 2544 432*
> Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 10, 15, 12.
> Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 15, 18, 15.
>
>
> SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
> ---------------------------
>
> Solar activity was very low. Region 755 (S12E37)
> produced a b 8 flare at 19/2217 utc with an associated type ii radio
> sweep (estimated speed of 1128 km/s) and a cme with an estimated
> speed of 776 km/s. The cme was directed to the east and is not
> expected to be geoeffective. No new regions were numbered today.
>
> Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very
> low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
>
> The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.
> Heightened
> activity was due to a solar sector boundary followed by the onset of
> a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ace increased
> from approximately 350 km/s to 600 km/s. By the end of the period,
> solar wind speed had decreased to approximately 450 km/s.
>
> Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
> expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions
> possible on 21 april. On 22 april, conditions are expected to
> increase to unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible as
> another coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become
> geoeffective. On 23 april, unsettled to active conditions are
> expected.
>
> Event probabilities 21 apr-23 apr
>
> Class M 01/01/01
> Class X 01/01/01
> Proton 01/01/01
> PCAF green
>
> Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 apr-23 apr
>
> A. Middle Latitudes
> Active 25/30/25
> Minor storm 10/15/10
> Major-severe storm 01/05/05
>
> B. High Latitudes
> Active 30/30/30
> Minor storm 15/15/15
> Major-severe storm 05/05/05
>
>
> ** End of Daily Report **
> _______________________________________________
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
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http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
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KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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