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[Propagation] Fw: [Prelimsolar] PRELIMINARY Daily Solar GeophysicalActiv

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Fw: [Prelimsolar] PRELIMINARY Daily Solar GeophysicalActivity Report for 14 April
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2005 19:04:51 -0400
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
>         /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>           PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
>
>                                 14 APRIL, 2005
>
>         /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>                         (Based in-part on SEC Data.)
>                (The final report will be released tommorrow.)
>
>
> PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 14 APRIL, 2005
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
>      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
>          Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 85, 85, 85.
>                     Average 90-day Solar Flux:  95.
>               Current Middle Latitude A-Index:  25
>                     Current Boulder K-Indices: 4544 333*
>                   Current Planetary K-Indices: 4533 323*
>                Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast:  10,   5,   5.
>              Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast:  12,  10,   8.
>
>
> SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
> ---------------------------
>
>             Solar activity was at very low levels today.  Region
>       752 (N01E43) showed slight growth during the period and a weak gamma
>       magnetic structure is visible in the central sunspot cluster.  This
>       region was limited to low level B-class flare production.  Region
>       754 (S08E51) was numbered today.
>
>            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be at
>       very low to low levels.  Region 752 is complex enough to generate a
>       C-class flare.
>
>            The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. 
> Elevated
>       levels are due to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
>
>            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
>       expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
>       active conditions are possible on 15 april as the geoeffective high
>       speed stream wanes.
>
>            Event probabilities 15 apr-17 apr
>
>                             Class M    05/05/05
>                             Class X    01/01/01
>                             Proton     01/01/01
>                             PCAF       green
>
>            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 apr-17 apr
>
>                        A.  Middle Latitudes
>                        Active                15/15/15
>                        Minor storm           05/01/01
>                        Major-severe storm    01/01/01
>
>                        B.  High Latitudes
>                        Active                20/15/15
>                        Minor storm           10/10/05
>                        Major-severe storm    05/05/01
>
>
> **  End of Daily Report  **
> _______________________________________________

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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