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[Propagation] Fw: [Prelimsolar] PRELIMINARY Daily Solar GeophysicalActiv

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Fw: [Prelimsolar] PRELIMINARY Daily Solar GeophysicalActivity Report For 31 March
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 21:30:16 -0500
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
>           PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
>
>                                 31 MARCH, 2005
>
>         /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>                         (Based in-part on SEC Data.)
>                (The final report will be released tommorrow.)
>
>
> PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 31 MARCH, 2005
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
>      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
>          Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 80, 85, 85.
>                     Average 90-day Solar Flux:  97.
>               Current Middle Latitude A-Index:   6
>                     Current Boulder K-Indices: 1321 222*
>                   Current Planetary K-Indices: 1332 123*
>                Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast:   8,  15,  15.
>              Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast:  10,  15,  25.
>
>
> SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
> ---------------------------
>
>             Solar activity remains at very low levels.  Regions 747
>       (S07E23) and 748 (N09E59) are both hsx alpha spot groups that were
>       numbered today.  Region 745 (N11W80) continues a slow decay and is
>       now spotless.
>
>            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to 
> continue
>       at very low levels.
>
>            The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The 
> greater
>       than 2 mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
>       today.
>
>            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
>       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 1 april.
>       Isolated minor storming conditions are expected late on 2 april due
>       to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and
>       should continue through 3 april.
>
>            Event probabilities 01 apr-03 apr
>
>                             Class M    01/01/01
>                             Class X    01/01/01
>                             Proton     01/01/01
>                             PCAF       green
>
>            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 apr-03 apr
>
>                        A.  Middle Latitudes
>                        Active                20/30/30
>                        Minor storm           05/10/10
>                        Major-severe storm    01/05/05
>
>                        B.  High Latitudes
>                        Active                20/30/40
>                        Minor storm           05/10/20
>                        Major-severe storm    01/05/10
>
>
> **  End of Daily Report  **
> _______________________________________________

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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