[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 713 (S08E22)
has produced several B-class flares and retains its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from
Region 713.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated period
of active to minor storm conditions observed at 21/1200 UTC.  Solar
wind data indicated a possible co-rotating interaction region
signature during this period.  Solar wind speed ranged from around
350 to 490 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating to -14 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated
periods of active conditions on 22-23 December due to coronal hole
effects.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 24
December.

III.  Event Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 101
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  015/020-010/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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